New Jobless Claims Rise to a New High for the Year…
Andover, Massachusetts August 19th, 2010 – As if there wasn’t enough pessimism in the markets already, the Labor Department today reported that last week new jobless claims rose to a 2010 high of 500,000. This is 12,000 more than the week before and indicates that businesses are still trimming their payrolls while they wait to see if this economic recovery is real or if it was just a short pause before the next recession.
The new yearly high is significantly below the recession high of 650,000 but is also way above the 400,000 that is needed to significantly cut the unemployment rate and put Americans back to work and on a path to growth and prosperity. Government stimulus funds are drying up and the housing sector continues to be weak which is why construction has been particularly hard hit over the past 6 weeks. On top of that state governments continue to trim their payrolls as deficits continue to mount. While all this data may seem to indicate that we are definitely going to enter a recession again shortly it is important to compare these statistics to past recessions and recoveries. What we find by looking at the past two recession in 1991 and 2001 is that this is not unusual. Both of those recoveries experienced a similar rise in claims but eventually fell.
While this data is not as dire as it may seem it certainly indicates that the recovery will continue with very little job creation in the foreseeable future. The private sector has been struggling to add jobs throughout the recovery and until the private sector becomes more confident in the recovery we can expect to see stubbornly high unemployment to continue.
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